Winter-Chill Attribution and CMIP6 Projections of ENSO-Driven Olive Yield Collapse on the Hyper-Arid Peruvian Coast — Reproducibility Archive

Javier Quille-Mamani; José Huanuqueño-Murillo; David Junior Quispe-Tito; Germán Huayna; Jorge Espinoza-Molina; Karina Acosta-Caipa; Heler Samir Pérez-Cubas; Eusebio Ingol-Blanco; Lía Ramos-Fernández; Edwin Pino-Vargas · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19640134

Resumen

Code, intermediate data, figures and tables supporting the AgriEngineering (MDPI) paper on winter-chill attribution and CMIP6 projections of ENSO-driven olive yield collapse in La Yarada, Tacna, Peru (18°S). Includes in-situ daily meteorology (2015-2025), Sentinel-2 vegetation indices, Dynamic-Model chill-portion preprocessing, the year-level log-OLS yield model (R²_log=0.65, β_chill=-0.82), parcel-year mixed-model, closed-form Bayesian robustness (BF10=15.9), counterfactual attribution of the 2016/2024 failure years, and CMIP6 delta-method projections (SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP5-8.5) identifying a chill-collapse threshold at ΔT_winter ≈ +1.25 °C. Parcel-level annual yields are not redistributed due to commercial sensitivity; the aggregated year-level dataset is sufficient to reproduce every number, table and figure in the paper.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann