Water Availability in the Ilave Basin, Puno, Peru: SWAT Hydrological Model

Chahuara K.Q.; Quispe C.H.; Fernández H.; Laura E.L. · Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems (2022) · DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-09070-7_39

Resumen

The drastic changes in the climate have been threatening the availability of water in quantity and quality at a global level. The objective of this study was to assess future water availability in the Ilave river basin by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The calibration and validation of the model was carried out over a period of 30 years (1986–2016) using climatic data and daily flows. For the future simulation (2025–2050), data from global climate models (GCM) MIROC6 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were adopted in the trajectory scenarios SSP245 and SSP585. The bias correction linear scaling method was used to correct the climatic data and then to simulate future streamflows in the basin were entered into SWAT. The results of the investigation project a decrease in precipitation (−38.08 mm to −0.01 mm) in the rainy season and an increase (0.62 mm to 4.30 mm) in the dry season. The maximum temperature increases by +0.66 °C, while the minimum temperature decreases by −0.29 °C. The research found that the future climate could decrease water availability by −41.2% to 40.0% in the rainy season, with a −33.8% to −0.1% decrease in the dry season. The findings of this study would be beneficial for water resource managers to develop adaptation strategies to climate change in the Ilave river basin.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional del Altiplano; Universidad Peruana Unión