Water Availability in the Huancane River Basin, under Climatic Influence, with the Application of the Soil & Water Assessment Tool Model

Calderon J.V.; Pilares-Hualpa I.A.; Alfaro-Alejo R.; Laqui W.; Pilares-Calla C.A.; Ginez-Choque P.A. · Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress (2025)

Resumen

This study was carried out in the highlands of Peru, to evaluate the surface water supply in the Huancane River basin, under climatic influence in the period 2025 - 2055. For this purpose, the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was used, which was calibrated and validated in periods of 13 and 9 years respectively, using observed flows from the Puente Huancane hydrometric station. In the future evaluation of flows, data from the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were accepted, from the GCMs (Global Climate Models) MIROC6 (Japan) and CNRH-ESM2-1 (France), a product of CMIP6, to which the data scale was reduced in Statistical Downscaling. Thus, obtaining results in the calibration and validation of a good fit of the SWAT model in the basin. Regarding the flow, it projects a decrease in the dry season of -55.03%, translated to a flow of -2.52 m3/s. In the rainy season, contributions of 4.98% are projected, which is equivalent to a flow of 1.93 m3/s, concluding that the decrease in flow is equivalent to a loss of 0.08 m3/s per year.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; Universidad Nacional del Altiplano