Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

Aguirre-Gutiérrez J.; Díaz S.; Rifai S.W.; Corral-Rivas J.J.; Nava-Miranda M.G.; Gonzálezm R.; Hurtadom A.B.; Revilla N.S.; Vilanova E.; Almeida E.; de Oliveira E.A.; Alvarez-Davila E.; Alves L.F.; de Andrade A.C.S.; da Costa A.C.L.; Vieira S.A.; Aragão L.; Arets E.; Aymard G.A.C.; Baccaro F.; Bakker Y.V.; Baker T.R.; Bánki O.; Baraloto C.; de Camargo P.B.; Berenguer E.; Blanc L.; Bonal D.; Bongers F.; Bordin K.M.; Brienen R.; Brown F.; Prestes N.C.C.S.; Castilho C.V.; Ribeiro S.C.; de Souza F.C.; Comiskey J.A.; Valverde F.C.; Müller S.C.; da Costa Silva R.; do Vale J.D.; de Andrade Kamimura V.; de Oliveira Perdiz R.; del Aguila Pasquel J.; Derroire G.; Fiore A.D.; Disney M.; Farfan-Rios W.; Fauset S.; Feldpausch T.R.; Ramos R.F.; Llampazo G.F.; Martins V.F.; Fortunel C.; Cabrera K.G.; Barroso J.G.; Hérault B.; Herrera R.; Honorio Coronado E.N.; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco I.; Pipoly J.J.; Zanini K.J.; Jiménez E.; Joly C.A.; Kalamandeen M.; Klipel J.; Levesley A.; Lopez Oviedo W.; Magnusson W.E.; dos Santos R.M.; Marimon B.S.; Marimon-Junior B.H.; de Almeida Reis S.M.; Cruz O.A.M.; Mendoza A.M.; Morandi P.; Muscarella R.; Nascimento H.; Neill D.A.; Menor I.O.; Palacios W.A.; Palacios-Ramos S.; Camacho N.C.P.; Pardo G.; Pennington R.T.; de Oliveira Pereira L.; Pickavance G.; Picolotto R.C.; Pitman N.C.A.; Prieto A.; Quesada C.; Ramírez-Angulo H.; Réjou-Méchain M.; Correa Z.R.; Huaymacari J.M.R.; Rodriguez C.R.; Rivas-Torres G.; Roopsind A.; Rudas A.; Negret B.S.; van der Sande M.T.; Santana F.D.; Santos F.A.M.; Bergamin R.S.; Silman M.R.; Silva C.; Espejo J.S.; Silveira M.; Souza F.C.; Sullivan M.J.P.; Swamy V.; Talbot J.; Terborgh J.J.; van der Meer P.J.; van der Heijden G.; van Ulft B.; Martinez R.V.; Vedovato L.; Vleminckx J.; Vos V.A.; Wortel V.; Zuidema P.A.; Zwerts J.A.; Laurance S.G.W.; Laurance W.F.; Chave J.; Dalling J.W.; Barlow J.; Poorter L.; Enquist B.J.; ter Steege H.; Phillips O.L.; Galbraith D.; Malhi Y. · Science (2025) · DOI: 10.1126/science.adl5414

Resumen

Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.

Instituciones: Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú; Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana; Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco; Universidad Nacional Amazónica de Madre de Dios