The firm level real effects of a State-guaranteed credit program

Céspedes-Reynaga N.; Gonzales-Berrocal L. · International Review of Economics and Finance (2026) · DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105666

Resumen

State credit guarantee programs were part of a world-wide effort to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 and sustain payment chains and existing research highlights its macro- and microeconomic effects. This study utilizes comprehensive national administrative data covering all businesses to assess the effects of a credit program in Peru, we assess its impact on employment, wages, sales, operating profits, production, productivity, and investment. Methodologically, it advances previous research by using detailed administrative records and a difference-in-differences identification strategy. Findings indicate that this program had a positive impact on employment, wages, sales, operating profits, production, and investment, but no significant effect on productivity. The program’s benefits were stronger among small and micro enterprises, aligning with its design. The largest impacts occurred in sectors most affected by the pandemic-such as trade, services, and transportation-where small firms dominate. Copyright

Instituciones: Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola