The Effect of COVID-19 on Oil Prices and Economic Cycles in Peru: A Transformation in Macroeconomic Variables (2018-2021)

Huamaní F.M.; Rodríguez S.J.; Sinchitullo J. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2025) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2025.1.1.2311

Resumen

This project analyzes the effect of the pandemic in Peru through an analysis of macroeconomic variables in the period 2018-2021. Initially, variables such as IPC, PBI, interest rate, imports, exports, exchange rate and oil price were studied. A correlation study was carried out between the variables as a function of the oil price. Then, the Shapiro-Wilk test was applied to determine if they followed a normal distribution, and those that did not were transformed by Box-Cox and Johnson. The Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests were performed to verify their stationarity, find the number of lags and the order of integration. Subsequently, the VAR model was performed to analyze the relationship of the variables, then we performed a Granger's chance test and an SVAR model was implemented. In addition, a Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to the variables for the long run. Finally, impulse-response plots were plotted to see how the variables were affected in the long run.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería