The concept of risk in geopolitics

Logan T.; Canosa I.V.; Hardaway K. · Handbook on the Geopolitics of Sustainability (2026) · DOI: 10.4337/9781035342549.00042

Resumen

Geopolitical challenges are examples of systemic risks: crossing jurisdictional boundaries, cascading through interconnected systems, defying clear interpretation, and involving deep uncertainties that defy traditional assessment and governance. Current geopolitical risk assessment lacks a consistent foundation, limiting researchers’ ability to build on approaches to examine interconnections, characterise uncertainties, or evaluate interventions. We review risk paradigms in geopolitical literature and find that most consider risk as both consequences and associated uncertainties. Through examples of state-based conflict, geoeconomic confrontation and technological risks, we demonstrate how this approach enables more comprehensive analysis of complex geopolitical challenges, including evaluating background knowledge and stakeholder perspectives. We recommend the IRGC Risk Governance Framework to operationalise this approach, emphasising inclusive knowledge integration, systematic deliberation, and adaptive monitoring for effective geopolitical risk management. © The Editors and Contributors Severally 2026.

Instituciones: Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú