Terms of trade and industrial activity in Peru: A contrast of the Dutch disease

Rodríguez Abraham A.R.; García Juárez H.D.; Arias Pereyra G.P.; Sánchez García I.E. · Revista de Ciencias Sociales (2025)

Resumen

Latin American countries are economies whose export revenues depend largely on the sale of low-value-added primary products, such as oil and metals. The objective of this study is to determine the response of industrial activity (measured by the Industrial GDP Index) to the behavior of the terms of trade (measured by the Terms of Trade Index) in Peru during the period 2013-2023. The research has a quantitative, applied approach, with a longitudinal, non-experimental design using ordinary least squares regression analysis. The results suggest a significant negative relationship between industrial activity and the terms of trade, which allowed us to determine that the country suffers from Dutch disease. It is concluded that this disease causes an unequal distribution of wealth, favoring sectors linked to natural resources; while others, such as the industrial sector, lag behind, thus increasing economic and social inequality. In light of this, both Peru and the countries in the region need to implement strategies to stabilize the economy, diversify it, reduce dependence on natural resources, and promote the social well-being of its citizens.

Instituciones: Universidad César Vallejo