Tactical production planning. Simulation of data under uncertainty scenarios

Miñan-Olivos G.S.; Cardoza-Sernaque M.A.; Cisneros-Hilario C.B. · Revista Venezolana de Gerencia (2022) · DOI: 10.52080/rvgluz.27.8.31

Resumen

The study developed a simulation model for application in small businesses regarding tactical production planning problems in uncertain scenarios. Computer tools such as Microsoft Excel were used with VBA, SPSS 25, and Minitab 18 applications. Aggregate production plans followed heuristic strategies. It was shown that a leveling strategy represented the lowest cost of production ($295,984). The simulation of 1000 random scenarios for sales determined that in 96.1% of cases the leveling strategy should be maintained. It was shown that the leveling strategy would maintain costs between $258,665 and $281,801 in 50% of likely scenarios, costs would exceed $281,801 at 25%, while amounts above $313,268 would be atypical. The confidence interval for its mean would be between $269,111 and $271,247. Finally, it could be concluded that simulation can reduce the degree of uncertainty in small business decision-making.

Instituciones: Universidad Tecnológica del Perú