SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE HUANCANÉ RIVER BASIN, UNDER CLIMATIC INFLUENCE, FROM THE APPLICATION OF THE SOIL & WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL MODEL

Calderon-Cahua J.V.; Pilares-Hualpa I.A.; Alfaro-Alejo R.; Ginezchoque P.A.; Pilares-Calla C.A.; Laqui Y.W. · Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress (2025) · DOI: 10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41wc-p2142-cd

Resumen

To assess the surface water supply in the Huancané River basin under the influence of climate change from 2025 to 2055, this study was conducted in the Peruvian highlands. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was calibrated over a 13-year period and validated over a 9-year period using flows observed at the Puente Huancané hydrological station. For flow assessment, data from the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were accepted from the GCMs (Global Climate Models) MIROC6 (Japan) and CNRH-ESM2-1 (France), a product of CMIP6. These data were downscaled using the Statistical Downscaling technique. Consequently, the SWAT model obtained a good fit in the basin through calibration and validation. Regarding flow, a decrease of-55.03% is projected during the dry season, resulting in a flow of-2.52 m3/s. During the rainy season, contributions of 4.98% are projected, equivalent to a flow of 1.93 m3/s. This decrease indicates that the reduction in flow is equivalent to a loss of 0.08 m3/s per year. This study highlights the usefulness of the SWAT model to simulate hydrological impacts under various climate scenarios, providing essential information for future water resource management in the Huancané basin.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; Universidad Nacional del Altiplano