Structural Economic, Trade, and FDI Transformations in China: A Political Economy Analysis of Structural Breaks (1960–2024)

Valdiglesias J. · Chinese Economy (2026) · DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2026.2662745

Resumen

This study examines China’s economic transformation through a political economy lens, emphasizing how internally driven structural changes shape international economic outcomes. Rather than treating trade integration as an exogenous process, the analysis conceptualizes it as the result of domestic adjustments in production structures, institutional coordination, and state-led development strategies. The empirical analysis covers the period from 1960 to 2024 and applies time-series techniques to identify structural breaks in exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. A combination of multiple break tests, Chow tests, and structural regressions is used to capture both the timing and magnitude of these discontinuities. The results show that major turning points in China’s global integration—particularly in the early 1990s, and post-2008 period—are closely associated with internal transformations rather than purely external shocks. These findings underscore the central role of domestic political and economic structures in shaping patterns of international openness. By integrating structural break analysis with a political economy framework, the study offers a more grounded explanation of how state-led structural change translates into evolving forms of global engagement.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos