Stochastic simulation of the Gallito Ciego reservoir operation, Cajamarca region, Peru

Gálvez P.; Chávarri-Velarde E. · Tecnologia y Ciencias del Agua (2026) · DOI: 10.24850/j-tyca-2026-05-07

Resumen

The Gallito Ciego dam was built in the northern part of Peru, which serves as water storage to generate hydroelectric energy, supply irrigation to the Jequetepeque – Zaña valleys, and control floods through regulations. For this reason, operating rules were proposed to improve water delivery management to the "Jequetepeque Class A Minor Hydraulic Sector User Board" to satisfy agricultural, population and primary demand, by evaluating the behavior of the reservoir through multiple simulated scenarios. A stochastic model of the SARIMA type was evaluated and used to approximate the inflow flows plus an IGARCH type model, following the Box-Jenkins methodology to identify, estimate, validate and forecast the simulated series. Operation directives through eight simulated scenarios using the Hec-ResSim software to satisfy maximum and minimum demands, and control operation of the system to avoid unnecessary discharges and preserve the dam´s infrastructure.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina