Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy

Mason A.; Lee R.; Abrigo M.; Aliyev R.; Amporfu E.; Bengtsson T.; Biao B.; Bixby L.R.; Bruil A.; Bucheli M.; Byambaa E.; Chlon-Dominczak A.; Comelatto P.; Coy D.; D’albis H.; Denissenko M.; Donehower G.; Doumbo S.; Dramani L.; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz A.; Gal R.; Gee C.; González C.; Hamid T.A.; Hammer B.; Holz M.; Istenic T.; Jiménez-Fontana P.; Ke S.; Khondker B.; Kim H.K.; Kluge F.; Koosheshi M.; Ladusingh L.; Lai M.S.; Lee S.-H.; Long T.; Lopes S.; Lupusor A.; Macías R.C.; Maliki; Matsukura R.; McCarthy D.; Mejia I.; Merette M.; Mwabu G.; Narayana M.R.; Nava I.; Nor V.; Norte G.; Ogawa N.; Olaniyan O.; Olivera J.; Oosthuizen M.; Patxot C.; Rice J.; Riyaza F.; Saad P.; Sambt J.; Seckin A.; Sefton J.; Serafini V.; Songvilay L.; Souto G.; Suwankitti W.; Toan P.; Torres N.; Tovar J.; Tung A.-C.; Turra C.; Urdinola P.; Vaittinen R.; Zannella M. · Population and Development Review (2022) · DOI: 10.1111/padr.12469

Resumen

New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.

Instituciones: Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú