Scenario analysis applied to mining for decision making and risk analysis

Salinas-Murga M.A.; Arango-Retamozo S.M.; Briceño-Contreras S.K.; Castillo-Chung A.R.; Torres-Rivera C.M.; Arévalo-Aranda C.; Portilla-Rodriguez H.R. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2022) · DOI: 10.18687/leird2022.1.1.13

Resumen

The objective of this research was to analyze scenarios through decision making and risk analysis, which was applied in the construction of a cruise ship in the Atlantis project. The methodology that was used is quantitative based on event information, which through a graphical representation facilitated the understanding and interpretation of the decision tree, in addition, statistical methods were applied for risk analysis, it should be noted that in order to obtain data was considered that of other studies. The results obtained from the decision tree were that the first alternative that was proposed had a NPV of $3,970, the second of $3,405 and regarding the risk analysis, the coefficient of variation of the first option is 57% and the second 60%. Therefore, after having made the graphical representation and verified the risk, it is concluded that, for the construction of the cruiser, option 1 has the most viable decision regarding the path traced in the graph, the highest NPV and the lowest risk.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Trujillo; Universidad Privada del Norte