Scenario-Adaptive Multi-Objective Optimization for Post-Earthquake Shelter Planning in Lima, Peru

Espezúa S.; Checcllo A.; Sanjinez A. · Applied Sciences (Switzerland) (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/app16084043

Resumen

Urban seismic vulnerability poses severe challenges for disaster preparedness in Lima, Peru, where a long-standing seismic gap increases risk to a metropolitan population of approximately ten million residents. This study presents an adaptive multi-objective optimization framework that dynamically adjusts shelter allocation priorities across earthquake intensity scenarios. The methodology integrates spatial data on population distribution, infrastructure vulnerability, and seismic hazard zones to optimize three competing objectives through the NSGA-III algorithm: inter-shelter spacing, population coverage, and safety. Model parameters were calibrated using controlled synthetic scenarios and subsequently validated with real-world data from Lima. Under the high-impact scenario used by the Municipality of Lima, the official set of 356 designated shelters was compared with an optimized configuration selected from 5855 potential sites under identical hazard and demand conditions. The optimized solution increased population coverage by 66.82% and reduced the average distance to critical resources by 24.55%, while reducing service gaps in peripheral districts. Scenario-adaptive optimization improved the robustness of shelter planning by producing configurations that were better aligned with operational priorities as hazard severity escalated, supporting more equitable access in a resource-constrained urban context. This research contributes an evidence-based decision-support tool for emergency management, translating multi-objective trade-offs into actionable shelter layouts for Lima.

Instituciones: Universidad del Pacífico