Risk-Monitoring Signals for Mining Safety Governance in Peru: Aggregate Non-Causal Associations Between Economic Activity and Occupational Accident Indicators, 2015–2024
Vergaray K.R.S.; Yupanqui-Chiarella V.A.; Dávila-Altamirano D.; Garcia J.A.M.; Rodriguez Robles R.H.; Cárdenas-Goyena N.M. · International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering (2026) · DOI: 10.18280/ijsse.160519
Resumen
The objective of this study was to identify non-causal risk-monitoring signals for mining safety governance by examining monthly associations between economic activity indicators and exposure-standardized occupational accident indicators in the Peruvian mining sector from 2015 to 2024. Official data on mining exports, investment categories, occupational accidents, lost days, and hours worked were analyzed using Mann–Kendall tests, Theil–Sen slopes, false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted Spearman correlations, lagged associations from 0 to 6 months, interquartile range (IQR)-based sensitivity checks, and a risk-monitoring classification protocol. The results showed significant increasing trends in mining exports and selected investment categories, while incident frequency, minor accident frequency, fatal accident frequency, and accident severity decreased. Spearman analysis identified 11 significant aggregate associations, all negative and mainly concentrated in incident and minor-accident indicators. The strongest associations were mining exports–incident frequency index (ρ = -0.799), beneficiation plant investment–incident frequency index (ρ = -0.560), and mining exports–minor accident frequency index (ρ = -0.521). Eight Class A priority review signals and three Class B targeted severity or fatality review signals were identified, while the disabling accident frequency index remained under routine monitoring. The framework supports institutional review, safety dashboards, and adaptive monitoring under an aggregate, ecological, and non-causal interpretation.
Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; Universidad Científica del Sur; Universidad de San Martín de Porres; Universidad Nacional de Moquegua