Rewiring Global Value Chains: Friendshoring, Nearshoring, and the Politics of Supply Chain Realignment in the United States-China Trade War

Valdiglesias J. · Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations (2026)

Resumen

Understanding how the United States (US)–China trade war affects Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies is crucial for policymakers and firms, as it informs strategies to enhance trade resilience and optimize participation in global value chains (GVCs). This study assesses the impact of the trade war on exports, emphasizing nearshoring and friendshoring as strategic responses. Economies are classified based on geographic proximity and perceived political or economic alignment with the two major powers. Using a random-effects panel data model covering all the 21 APEC members from 2013 to 2022, the study examines trade flow adjustments before and during the trade war, accounting for heteroscedasticity and structural variations across countries. Results indicate heterogeneous effects: economies geographically close to the US, such as Mexico and Canada, experienced significant gains through nearshoring, while countries strategically aligned with either China or the US, such as Vietnam and Taiwan, benefited from friendshoring. Findings highlight that both geographic proximity and strategic alignment enhance integration into GVCs, facilitating resilience and export growth amidst geopolitical disruptions. By linking geopolitical factors, supply chain strategies, and export performance, the study provides practical insights for policymakers and firms aiming to optimize trade outcomes under increasing global uncertainty. The evidence suggests that proactive engagement in nearshoring and friendshoring can strengthen export capacities and promote sustainable participation in evolving GVCs. © (2026), (Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies - National Sun Yat-sen University). All rights reserved.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos