Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

Guo Q.; Mistry M.N.; Zhou X.; Zhao G.; Kino K.; Wen B.; Cvijanovic I.; Yoshimura K.; Satoh Y.; Kim Y.; Ng C.F.S.; Vicedo-Cabrera A.M.; Armstrong B.; Katsouyanni K.; Masselot P.; Urban A.; Tong S.; Sera F.; Huber V.; Bell M.L.; Gasparrini A.; Kyselý J.; Hashizume M.; Oki T.; Abrutzky R.; Guo Y.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M.; Saldiva P.H.N.; Lavigne E.; Ortega N.V.; Correa P.M.; Kan H.; Osorio S.; Roye D.; Indermitte E.; Orru H.; Jaakkola J.J.K.; Ryti N.; Pascal M.; Schneider A.; Analitis A.; Entezari A.; Mayvaneh F.; Zeka A.; Goodman P.; de’Donato F.; Michelozzi P.; Alahmad B.; De la Cruz Valencia C.; Diaz M.H.; Overcenco A.; Ameling C.; Houthuijs D.; Rao S.; Carrasco G.; Seposo X.; Madureira J.; das Neves Pereira da Silva S.; Holobaca I.-H.; Acquaotta F.; Scovronick N.; Kim H.; Lee W.; Tobias A.; Íñiguez C.; Forsberg B.; Ragettli M.S.; Pan S.-C.; Guo Y.L.; Li S.; Schneider R.; Colistro V.; Zanobetti A.; Schwartz J.; Van Dung D.; Dang T.N.; Honda Y. · PNAS Nexus (2024) · DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae290

Resumen

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to Tair. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with Tair in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems. © The Author(s) 2024.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia