Regional Climate Influence on Peru Agricultural Yield?

Jury M.R.; Borbor M. · Atmosphere (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/atmos17060544

Resumen

A study of agricultural yield sensitivity in Peru to climate variations is conducted from 1961 to 2024 to identify climate drivers and statistical tools for early warning and risk management. The statistical basis is year-on-year change in standardized crop yield rate (CYR) across the southeastern highlands of Peru 7–15° S, 70–77° W. Crops favoring La Nina include citrus, cotton, fruit, and sugar-cane. Based on temporal and spatial correlation and composite analysis, our findings indicate that (i) east Pacific and Caribbean sea temperatures and Atlantic upper winds provide advance warning signals of CYR fluctuations; (ii) during El Niño, the subtropical jet subsides over the Peruvian highlands, raising temperatures and lowering humidity; (iii) during La Niña, cooler temperatures conspire with rising motion and beneficial rains; and (iv) CYR fluctuations account for 26% of macro-economic variance, ~$66 B at the current value. Bringing technological information to agricultural decision making will improve resilience and help meet the twin challenges of a growing population and changeable climate. Adaptive measures are suggested to take advantage of Southern Oscillation’s influence on austral summer weather and subsequent annual crop yield.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Trujillo