Refinement of the Bayesian probabilistic framework for forensic adult age-at-death estimation using dentin translucency in intact-single rooted teeth

Parra R.C.; Garizoain G.; Aranda C.M.; L´Abbé E.; Marques C.; Gualdi-Russo E.; Caldas I.; Giannotti P.S.; Mansegosa D.; Ubelaker D.H.; Rodríguez P.A.; Adserias-Garriga J.; Pinto P.H.V.; Moraitis K.; Zorba E.; Escalante-Flórez K.; Mishra M.; Condori L.A.; Bertrand B.; Moyano G.A.R.; Flores C.H.; Retana-Milán F.; Rivera C.; Peccerelli F.; da Silva R.H.A.; Baccino E.; Luna L.H. · Forensic Science International (2026) · DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112964

Resumen

This study refines a Bayesian probabilistic framework for adult age-at-death estimation based on root dentin translucency (RDT). Model comparison using the Bayesian Information Criterion demonstrated that a univariate model relying solely on RDT was the most parsimonious and efficient, achieving an R² of 63.60%. The framework was validated through entirely external samples: a Peruvian case study, and samples from Brazil (N = 247), the UK (N = 113), and Guatemala (N = 302). Bayesian updating using data from the Forensic International Dental Database (FIDB; N = 4522) substantially increased the strength of the evidence, with Likelihood Ratios rising from a mean of 2160 to nearly 10,000, elevating the inference to a level of very strong support and extremely strong support. Results confirmed the inter-population stability of the model and its capacity to mitigate the characteristic trajectory effect of overestimation in young adults and underestimation in older adults. This approach provides a transparent, robust, and globally applicable tool for forensic anthropology, successfully balancing statistical rigor with practical utility. Furthermore, it establishes a foundational platform, named BayAD, that enables the future integration of additional skeletal traits within an age-at-death estimation framework.