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Rainy and dry conditions in the state of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil: Natural variability and the ongoing warming climate

Zanin P.R.; Pareja-Quispe D.; Pereira R.P. · Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2026) · DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06344-2

Resumen

Extreme hydroclimatological events have been increasing worldwide, particularly in southeastern South America, where the state of Santa Catarina is located. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate rainy and dry conditions in this state of southern Brazil across opposite and combined phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), considering the potential effects of the ongoing warming climate caused by human activities and the relationships with the main modes of natural teleconnections at the interannual time-scale. The Standard Precipitation Index at the 1-month time scale (SPI-1) and the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at the 12-month time scale (SPEI-12) are used to identify rainy and dry conditions. Three subperiods of equal length were considered. The Cold AMO and Warm PDO (CAWP; 07/1983–06/1997), Warm AMO and Cold PDO (WACP; 07/1997–06/2011) and a subperiod within WACP to assess the ongoing warming climate due to anthropogenic activities (WACP + ; 07/2011–06/2025). Overall, the naturally and anthropogenically influenced long-term climate oscillations establish a background state that modulates the frequency and intensity of different hydroclimatological conditions, whereas the interannual climate variability governs the high-frequency oscillations between normal, rainy and dry conditions. Among the three subperiods (CAWP → WACP → WACP +), the central/western highlands of the state of Santa Catarina tend to be more exposed to dry conditions, while the coastal lowlands tend to be more exposed to rainy conditions. The PDO, Antarctic Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode show stronger influence on rainy and dry conditions than other natural climate variability evaluated in this study. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2026.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos