R2 evaluation between Niño region SSTs (1+2, 3, 3.4, 4) and RAIN4PE monthly precipitation in the Piura River basin

Olortegui Carlos Alberto L.; Villarroel Alex Nilsson M.; Arteaga Abel C.; Navarro Leonardo Franco C.; Cofrep Franz Leonardo P. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2026) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2026.1.1.234

Resumen

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the El Niño 1+2 region directly influences precipitation in the Piura River basin, causing variations that can lead to high-impact hydrometeorological events. This study evaluates the statistical relationship between the RAIN4PE product and these variations by analyzing the coefficient of determination (R2) to quantify the explained variance applied to monthly series processed in Google Earth Engine. The results show that RAIN4PE exhibits a significant association with warm El Niño 1+2 conditions, reaching the highest R2 values between January and March, and revealing spatial patterns consistent with regional ENSO dynamics. It is concluded that RAIN4PE constitutes a consistent tool for ocean-atmosphere analysis in the Piura River basin and is useful for teleconnection studies and to support climate risk management.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas