Projection Of Space Industry Growth In Developing Countries: A System Dynamics Model Applied To The Case Of Peru

Quintana Quispe F.R.; Roman-Gonzalez A. · Proceedings of the International Astronautical Congress, IAC (2025) · DOI: 10.52202/083099-0042

Resumen

This research presents the design and application of a system dynamics model aimed at projecting the potential growth of the space industry in developing countries, using Peru as a case study. The purpose of the work is to explore, from a prospective perspective, the critical interactions among public and private investment, specialized talent formation and retention, scientific and technological infrastructure, international cooperation, and the demand for space services. The model, built in Vensim and simulated over a twenty-year horizon with quarterly resolution, incorporates reinforcing and balancing feedback loops as well as structural delays associated with human capital development and capacity expansion. Simulation results indicate that isolated interventions have limited effects, while an integrated strategy that combines investment in research and development, talent formation, and institutional adoption produces superior growth trajectories. This scenario accelerates the creation of firms and expands the user base, although constrained by the early saturation of infrastructure. Consequently, talent emerges as the main leverage point of the ecosystem, while installed capacity acts as a critical limit that must be expanded in parallel with demand. The proposed framework is parsimonious, reproducible, and scalable, and provides a useful tool for guiding evidence-based policies in emerging economies. Copyright

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Tecnológica de Lima Sur