Projected Shortage of Anesthesiologists and Regional Inequities in Peru, 2024–2050

Chura-Villena V.R.; Moreno-Gonzales Á.R. · Revista del Cuerpo Medico Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo (2026) · DOI: 10.35434/rcmhnaaa.2026.191.3121

Resumen

Introduction: Unequal distribution of health human resources, particularly anesthesiologists, limits timely and safe surgical care in Peru, especially outside Metropolitan Lima. Objective: To project the anesthesiology workforce gap in Peru (2024–2050) and identify the regions at highest risk of shortage to guide human resources planning. Materials and methods: Quantitative, applied, quasi-experimental, analytical, longitudinal, retrospective study. Data were obtained from the 2022 National Census of Anesthesiologists (SPAAR) and INEI population projections (institutional source used by the study). Demand was estimated using the WFSA standard (20 anesthesiologists per 100,000 inhabitants). A system dynamics model in R simulated regional supply, demand, and workforce gap through 2050; descriptive analyses, Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p<0.05), model validation with R² and rRMSE, and Pearson correlation between multidimensional poverty and the gap were performed. Results: National supply is projected to increase from 2,587 anesthesiologists (2022) to 7,095 (2050; ≈161/year), remaining below projected demand. By 2050, critical shortages will not be nationwide but concentrated in Piura, Áncash, Loreto, and Ucayali; in contrast, Metropolitan Lima and Callao are expected to reach balance (≈2042 and ≈2030, respectively) and subsequent surplus. Model performance was high (R²≈0.81–1.00; rRMSE<0.03) and the poverty–gap correlation was weak (r≈–0.12 to –0.19). Conclusions: Peru will sustain a national anesthesiologist shortage through 2050, characterized by regional inequities and centralism favoring Lima-Callao, highlighting the need for territorially focused, long-term workforce policies based on dynamic projections.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal