Progress test scores as predictors of performance in the Peruvian National Medical Examination

Romaní F.; Gutiérrez C. · Educacion Medica (2025) · DOI: 10.1016/j.edumed.2025.101092

Resumen

Introduction: Progress tests are summative assessments used to monitor the evolution of learning in medical students. Their use as predictors of performance on national licensing exams has been mainly studied in U.S. universities. This study evaluated whether performance and score trajectories in multiple progress tests predict outcomes on the Peruvian National Medical Exam (ENAM). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from medical students at a school in Lima, Peru. We analyzed cohorts that entered in 2017 and 2018 and took the ENAM in 2023 and 2024. Predictor variables included progress test scores, sixth-year GPA, number of progress tests taken, and sex. We applied generalized linear models (GLMs) to predict ENAM scores. Results: We analyzed data from 51 students. The average score of the first five progress tests showed a positive linear correlation with ENAM performance (r = 0.544; 95% CI: 0.316 to 0.713). Additionally, the GPA was correlated with ENAM scores (r = 0.551; 95% CI: 0.325 to 0.718). For each one-point increase in the average of the first five progress tests, the ENAM score increased by 0.51 points (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.73). Conclusion: Performance on progress tests in a Peruvian medical school is a significant positive predictor of ENAM scores.

Instituciones: Universidad de Piura