PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT USING FRAGILITY FUNCTION FOR DWELLING IN METROPOLITAN LIMA AREA

Flores E.; Diaz M.; Zavala C. · World Conference on Earthquake Engineering proceedings (2021)

Resumen

The seismic risk is the cause of a seismic hazard, such as a major earthquake significantly affect a country’s sustainable development. The population potentially exposed to earthquakes in the world increased from 1.4 to 2.7 billion between 1975 and 2015 (Atlas of the human planet, 2017). In that sense, the scientific community is working on the reduction of seismic risk since 1990 and nowadays within the Sendai Framework. Therefore, quantify vulnerability is mandatory to prevent. Fragility functions are a widely used tool to assess the vulnerability through the probability of response damage occurrence of a structure at different seismic demands. These functions are very useful for researchers, engineers, insurance companies, territorial planners, and decision-makers. In Lima city, 83% of dwellings are constructed applying a confined masonry structure (Diaz, 2019) because of the low cost and workability. However, the vulnerability of these buildings can lead to severe earthquake damage due to a lack of technical supervision. Additionally, studies conducted by Japan Peru Center for Earthquake Engineering Research and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID) in the framework SATREPS project (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) concluded that Metropolitan Lima Area has a seismic gap that will present a severe earthquake with a magnitude moment of 8.9 approximately. This research aims to quantify the vulnerability and assess the seismic risk of Metropolitan Lima Area with typologies of confined masonry dwellings established in field survey in represents districts of Lima, through fragility function and seismic demand. An experimental database of confined masonry walls and statistical database obtained from a survey made in fieldwork from 40 districts in Lima city are used to proposed typologies of a dwelling according to the type of material, the number of floors, and wall density respectively. The dwellings were analyzed in nonlinear dynamic analysis, including parameters to control the hysteretic curve that was founded from experimental tests. On the other hand, seismic scenarios were considered with a different return period from Lima city. Finally, fragility function is developed base on the probabilistic method, and the probability damage matrixs were obtained under six seismic scenarios.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería