Predictive models based on machine learning to analyze the adoption of digital payments in Latin America and the Caribbean

Mamani Lopez J.W.; Gonzales A.V.M.; Condori P.P.C. · International Journal of Data and Network Science (2025) · DOI: 10.5267/j.ijdns.2025.3.001

Resumen

The use of technology in the financial industry has experienced sustained growth in recent years. However, in many emerging economies, a significant proportion of the population still does not utilize digital solutions for financial transactions. Promoting financial inclusion through digital environments is essential for driving social and economic development. This study aims to develop machine learning models to predict the adoption of digital payments in Latin America and the Caribbean using statistical data from the World Bank's Global Findex Database for 2021. The performance of the Random Forest, LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost algorithms was compared, with the optimal hyperparameter combination identified through Bayesian optimization. The results show that LightGBM achieved the highest performance in predicting digital payments, with an F1-score of 90.25% and a more stable balance between precision and recall compared to the other models. These findings highlight the value of machine learning models in the financial sector, as they enable a more accurate identification of users adopting digital solutions, facilitating the design of strategies to strengthen financial inclusion in the region.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa; Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann