Predictive analysis of macroeconomic indicators of the tourism sector post Covid-19, Peru 2019-2023

Valle Díaz F.R.; Huamán Romaní Y.L. · Revista Venezolana de Gerencia (2022) · DOI: 10.52080/rvgluz.27.98.13

Resumen

The objective of this work is to predictively analyze the macroeconomic indicators of the post-Covid-19 tourism sector for Peru during the 2019-2023 period with data corresponding to the 2007-2018 macroeconomic indicators with a projection to 2023. The methodology consisted of documentary research and descriptive using as a sample the tourists who enter Peru. The results indicate estimating through double exponential smoothing the per capita income from tourism at 1137 US$ by the end of 2020. At the end of 2021 it will be 1136 dollars and in 2023 it will be 1133 dollars. Foreign exchange earnings are 5,161 million dollars in 2021 and 5,508 million in 2023. The Gross Domestic Product for the Accommodation and Restoration sector explains the exponential growth, registering 18,398 million 307 thousand dollars for 2021. The conclusions show that the A key factor in the surplus in the tourism sector is the use of delivery in the restaurant subsector and the adaptation of hotel chains to the post-Covid-19 context.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional José María Arguedas