Predicting Formality in Micro and Small Enterprises in Peru: A Model Based on Structural and Strategic Factors; [Prévision de la formalité dans les micro et petites entreprises du Pérou: un modèle basé sur des facteurs structurels et stratégiques]

Chafloque-Céspedes R.; del Carmen Espina-Romero L. · Lecturas de Economia (2025) · DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n104a361071

Resumen

Business informality represents a structural challenge in emerging economies, limiting productivity, access to credit, and the inclusion of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in formal networks. This study develops a predictive model using binary logistic regression to estimate the probability of formality in Peruvian MSEs based on structural and strategic factors. It is proposed that characteristics such as firm size, tenure of premises and high levels of production significantly increase the probability of formalization. Data from the V National Economic Census 2022 (n= 175 264) were used. The results reveal that companies in the trade and services sector, with higher levels of sales and higher fiscal year results, increase the probability of formality, while small size and operation without fixed premises decrease this probability. On the other hand, it was found that high levels of sales are not necessarily associated with sustained formalization processes. These findings provide a statistical model that can guide public policies towards segments with a higher risk of informality. It is recommended to expand the analysis with longitudinal data and qualitative variables to better capture the complexity of the phenomenon. © (2025), (Universidad de Antioquia), All Rights Reserved.