Potential geographic distribution of Handroanthus serratifolius in tropical America

Elera-Gonzales D.G.; de Sousa M.B.; da Silva C.L.; Melo L.D.M.; Nonato E.R.L.; Nogueira S.S.; de Sousa R.R.; Souza C.D.S.; da Silva E.C.A.; Caetano M.B.C.; Cortez L.E.B.; Silva E.A. · Flora: Morphology, Distribution, Functional Ecology of Plants (2026) · DOI: 10.1016/j.flora.2026.152926

Resumen

Handroanthus serratifolius (ipê-amarelo/tahuari amarillo) is a widespread tropical American tree species with significant of ecological and economic value. It provides durable timber and medicinal bark and contributes to forest canopy structure and biodiversity. We used a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche model to estimate its potential distribution across tropical South America from curated occurrences and climate–edaphic predictors. Suitability concentrates in warm biomes (Amazon, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest), indicating adaptation to humid–subhumid environments. Soil pH at 100–200 cm and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the strongest determinants, highlighting deep-soil chemistry and cold-season thresholds as key constraints. Model performance was explicitly quantified: mean AUC = 0.812 (Test AUC = 0.798; Training AUC = 0.826) across 100 bootstrap replicates, with TSS = 0.436 at the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity threshold, indicating moderate discrimination with low variance. The continuous suitability surface and the thresholded map (27 % of the region in medium–high suitability; 28 % suitable in the binary map) delineate core areas for conservation and restoration planning. Results underscore the value of integrating edaphic depth profiles with climate for tree SDMs and provide spatial guidance for prioritizing protection, seed-source selection, and assisted restoration. Because our analysis addresses present conditions only, these maps constitute a baseline that conservation practitioners or future studies may overlay with independently generated climate projections to evaluate exposure and potential range shifts.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Chota