Performance of the CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, and 4C Mortality Score scales to predict in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 within the first 30 days in Lima, Peru

Quispe-Ochoa D.; Flores-Quiroga R.; Hernández-Patiño I.; De La Cruz-Vargas J.A.; Talavera J.E. · Revista Facultad de Medicina (2024) · DOI: 10.15446/revfacmed.v72n1.109524

Resumen

Introduction: Although the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained, new and fatal variants causing a high inflammatory response could emerge. Therefore, the use of instruments that allow healthcare workers to identify potentially severe patients is relevant. Objective: To determine the performance of the CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, and 4C Mortality Score scales in predicting in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19 within the first 30 days in Lima, Peru. Materials and methods: Retrospective analytical study conducted in 268 adults with COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized between January 1 and June 30, 2021, in a tertiary care hospital in Lima, Peru. To determine the prediction performance of in-hospital mortality within the first 30 days due to COVID-19, the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves and areas under the curve (AUC) of each scale were calculated, as well as their sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). The score cut-off points were obtained using the Youden index. Results: The median age of the participants was 54 years (IQR: 45.20-64.00), 177 (66.04%) were male, and 67 (25.00%) died. The score with the highest AUC was the 4C Mortality Score (0.89; 95%CI: 0.84-0.93), followed by the SOFA (0.87; 95%CI: 0.83-0.92). Conclusions: All four scales had an acceptable predictive performance for in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19, and the 4C Mortality Score had the best performance, followed by the SOFA.

Instituciones: Universidad Ricardo Palma