Performance of Seismic Slope Displacement Models under Subduction Earthquakes: Insights from Chilean Records

Santiago Y.; Araujo W.; Martín I.S. · International Conference on Civil, Structural and Transportation Engineering (2026) · DOI: 10.11159/iccste26.248

Resumen

Methods for estimating seismic displacements on slopes are used both to verify slope stability and to restrict displacement for design purposes. Most existing methods were developed from ground-motion records of shallow crustal earthquakes, which typically have shorter durations and lower moment magnitudes but may exhibit high peak ground accelerations (PGA). In Chile, however, t he most significant recent earthquakes have been deeper subduction events, characterized by longer durations, higher moment magnitudes, and greater Arias intensities (IA). Since most methods are not calibrated for subduction earthquakes, this study evaluates a method developed specifically for such events by Bray et al. (2017) and compares it against seven additional methods original ly formulated for crustal earthquakes. Four approaches—Bray et al. (2017), Cai and Bathurts (1996), Hsieh and Lee (2010), and Crespellani et al. (1998)— show potential applicability in subduction zones within certain ranges of the yield coefficient (ky). A comparative analysis was carried out using a real slope in Chile, 200 m high with a 3:1 H/V ratio, which failed during the February 27, 2010, earthquake. Of all methods tested, only Hsieh and Lee (2010), with ky calculated via Crespellani et al. (1998), closely reproduced the observed displacement. This finding suggests the method’s usefulness in slope design, though further validation requires additional real-case studies.

Instituciones: Universidad de Piura