Observed (1979–2024) and Projected (2030) Climate Trends in Relation to Farmers’ Perceptions in Coffee Cooperatives of Northern Peru

Campos Trigoso J.A.; Rituay P.; Bustos Chavez M.D.P.; Ramos-Sandoval R.; Guadalupe G.A.; Grandez-Yoplac D.E.; García L. · Agriculture (Switzerland) (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/agriculture16010057

Resumen

Climate change is increasingly threatening the sustainability of coffee farming in northern Peru, particularly in the Amazonas region, where coffee cooperatives serve as vital socioeconomic hubs for thousands of families. This study analyzed historical climate data from 1979 to 2024 to project trends up to 2030, integrating local perceptions from coffee producers to identify trends, anomalies, and future scenarios within four coffee cooperatives in northern Peru. We examined variables such as precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and wind speed using nonparametric statistical analyses and SARIMA time-series models. The findings indicate a steady increase in maximum and average temperatures, alongside greater irregularity in precipitation. Specifically, the Bagua Grande and COOPARM cooperatives are experiencing precipitation deficits, while the Alta Montaña and Ocumal cooperatives are facing excess rainfall. Additionally, we project an increase in evapotranspiration by 2030. Surveys conducted with coffee growers reveal a consensus regarding irregular rainfall patterns; however, there is less recognition of the rising temperature trends. This discrepancy emphasizes the importance of combining scientific data with local knowledge to develop more effective adaptation strategies at the cooperative level. We conclude that enhancing climate training and cooperative management is essential for improving the resilience of regional coffee farming.

Instituciones: Universidad Tecnológica del Perú; Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas