Numerical Simulation of Hydrodynamic Conditions in Rivers Facing Extreme Events Due to the “El Niño” Phenomenon

Alvarez G.; Moreno A.; Guzmán E.; Santos S. · Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies (2021) · DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-57566-3_23

Resumen

Disasters caused by floods are increasingly common around the world, such as the case in the western part of North and South America, due to the presence of the “El Niño” phenomenon, which causes an increase in rainfall and flow rates of the rivers causing floods. For this reason, this present work has carried a numerical simulation of flooding in the face of extreme events such as “El Niño,” with the purpose of validating a hydrodynamic model that subsequently allows to predict the magnitude of a future event, for this, hydrological data of average flows and instantaneous maximums over a period of 40 years has been used. The hydrological information was processed using the Gumbel method to obtain simulation flows for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 500 years. As a result, an approximation of 75% of the model was obtained in comparison with the historical event. Additionally, an increase of 103% in water elevation was found for discharge with a return period of 500 years, compared with the event of March 27, 2017, which represents a discharge with a return period of 36 years.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas