“Not One Less”: epidemiology and structural factors of femicide in Ecuador; [“Nem uma a menos”: epidemiologia e fatores estruturais do feminicídio no Equador]

Sarmiento-Altamirano D.; Cedillo P.; Illares S.; López R.; Reinoso M.; Reinoso C.; Chamorro A. · Revista Facultad Nacional de Salud Publica (2026) · DOI: 10.17533/udea.rfnsp.e361367

Resumen

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiological profile of femicides (2014–2025) and identify the association between provincial incidence and structural factors (2018–2024). Methods: An ecological time-series study was conducted using aggregated data at the provincial level (2018–2024). The association between the femicide rate (dependent variable) and structural factors (inequality, poverty, employment) and sociodemographic factors (education, geographic environment, prior violence) was analyzed. A generalized linear Poisson model with a logarithmic link was used, adjusting for population size using an offset and employing robust standard errors. Results: From 2014 to 2025, 3,619 violent deaths of women were recorded, of which 23.74% (n = 859) were classified as femicides, with a historical peak in 2023. Multivariate analysis for the years 2018–2024 identified economic inequality (Gini coefficient) (incidence rate [IRR]: 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.17) as the most significant predictor of femicide, followed by income poverty (IRR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.03–1.05). In contrast, the victim's higher education was identified as a significant protective factor (IRR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91–0.98). The provinces with the highest number of prior reports of violence against women showed slight protection (IRR: 0.99; 95% CI = 0.99-0.99). Conclusions: Mapping the territorial dimension of femicide in Ecuador demonstrates that it is not an isolated event, but rather a phenomenon rooted in determinants of economic exclusion such as poverty and inequality, while women's higher education acts as a protective factor. These findings reinforce the need for public policies that go beyond the criminal justice system and focus on economic autonomy and educational empowerment as primary prevention mechanisms. © Universidad de Antioquia.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia