Multi-Step Forecasting of Weekly Dengue Cases Using Data Augmentation and Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks

Flores A.; Tito-Chura H.; Guzman-Valdivia J.; Morales-Gonzales R.; Rosado-Chavez C.; Silva-Delgado C. · Computers (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/computers15020114

Resumen

Dengue case forecasting is important for the prevention and early control of outbreaks, as well as for the optimization of healthcare resources, among other aspects. This study addresses the need to develop increasingly accurate forecasting models that can support informed decision-making before and during dengue epidemics. Accordingly, two new models based on convolutional and recurrent neural networks, namely ConvLSTM and ConvBiLSTM, combined with data augmentation based on linear interpolation, are proposed. As a case study, weekly dengue cases in Peru from 2000 to 2024 are used. The proposed models are compared with well-known recurrent neural network-based models such as LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU, and BiGRU, both with and without data augmentation. The results show that the proposed models with data augmentation achieve comparable and superior performance to the benchmark models, while also exhibiting a lower average computational cost.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Moquegua