Multi-country projections of temperature-related suicide mortality

Ro H.; Kim Y.; Hashizume M.; Madaniyazi L.; Bell M.L.; Honda Y.; Gasparrini A.; Masselot P.; Sera F.; Guo Y.; Li S.; Huang W.; Coelho M.D.S.Z.S.; Saldiva P.H.N.; Lavigne E.; Correa P.M.; Valdes-Ortega N.; Kan H.; Roye D.; Kyselý J.; Urban A.; Orru H.; Indermitte E.; Jaakkola J.J.K.; Ryti N.; Schneider A.; Huber V.; Michelozzi P.; de’Donato F.; Diaz M.H.; Arellano E.E.F.; Seposo X.; Chua P.L.C.; Holobaca I.H.; Scovronick N.; Acquaotta F.; Kim H.; Lee W.; Tobias A.; Íñiguez C.; Vicedo-Cabrera A.M.; Ragettli M.S.; Guo Y.L.; Pan S.-C.; Armstrong B.; Zanobetti A.; Schwartz J.; Dang T.N.; Do V.D.; Schwarz M.; Chung Y. · Nature Mental Health (2026) · DOI: 10.1038/s44220-026-00674-w

Resumen

Rising temperatures have raised concerns about impacts on mental health, including suicide. However, how climate change will affect global temperature-related suicide remains unclear. Using data from 751 locations across 26 countries, combined with climate projections under 3 emissions scenarios, we estimated temperature–suicide associations and projected temperature-related suicide mortality through the 2050s, assuming no adaptation, demographic shifts or changes in suicide rate. Here we show that climate change is projected to increase suicide mortality attributable to temperature across all studied regions, with the magnitude depending on both the emissions scenario and geographic location. Warmer regions—including Central and South America, South Europe, Southeast Asia and South Africa—show larger increases, while temperate and colder regions such as North America, North Europe, East Asia and Australia show smaller but meaningful rises. These findings highlight the potential of climate change to exacerbate suicide and underscore the importance of adaptive mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) 2026.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia