Modelling the potential distribution of Gentianella weberbaueri (Gentianaceae) in Peru

Santos-Linares V.; Macedo-Bedoya J. · Lilloa (2025) · DOI: 10.30550/j.lil/2235

Resumen

This study models the potential distribution of Gentianella weberbaueri, an endemic species of the Peruvian Andes, using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) algorithms. Thirty-five georeferenced occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables extracted from WorldClim v2.1 were used. The model showed a high predictive capacity (AUC = 0.994 ± 0.001), with the maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the wettest quarter being identified as the most influential variables. The spatial projection revealed a concentrated distribution in Áncash, Huánuco, La Libertad, Lima, and Junín, covering approximately 15784 km2. These areas correspond to high Andean ecosystems between 3000 and 4900 m asl, characterized by cold climates and well-drained soils. The analysis suggests that, despite its classification as a species of least concern, G. weberbaueri faces risks from habitat fragmentation and climate change. It is recommended that conservation strategies be strengthened in areas of high ecological suitability, such as Huascarán National Park, and that biological corridors be implemented to ensure connectivity between subpopulations.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos