Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence A global multi-city analysis

Feurer D.; Riffe T.; Kniffka M.S.; Acosta E.; Armstrong B.; Mistry M.; Lowe R.; Royé D.; Hashizume M.; Madaniyazi L.; Ng C.F.S.; Tobias A.; Íñiguez C.; Vicedo-Cabrera A.M.; Ragettli M.S.; Lavigne E.; Correa P.M.; Ortega N.V.; Kyselý J.; Urban A.; Orru H.; Indermitte E.; Maasikmets M.; Dallavalle M.; Schneider A.; Honda Y.; Alahmad B.; Zanobetti A.; Schwartz J.; Carrasco G.; Holobâca I.H.; Kim H.; Lee W.; Bell M.L.; Scovronick N.; Acquaotta F.; Coélho M.D.S.Z.S.; Diaz M.H.; Arellano E.E.F.; Michelozzi P.; Stafoggia M.; de’Donato F.; Rao S.; Di Ruscio F.; Seposo X.; Guo Y.; Tong S.; Masselot P.; Gasparrini A.; Sera F. · Environmental Epidemiology (2024) · DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000338

Resumen

Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 – 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission. Copyright

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia