Márkovian Prospective Analysis: Financial Health as an Effect of Sales Management and Market Analysis, Service SMEs-Huacho.Peru

Eduardo Gutiérrez-Ascón J.; Gianella Azabache-Rojas M.; Gabriel Gamboa-Rojas J.; Flor Benites-Valenzuela R.; Francesco Peralta-Marcos M.; David Huaman-Aguirre J.; Bouby-Tolentino F. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2025) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2025.1.1.2084

Resumen

The study aims to predict the future financial health of service-oriented MSMEs in Huacho, Peru, influenced by sales management and market analysis, using a prospective model based on Márkov chains. The research design is cross-sectional, using a non-experimental quantitative methodology, with statistical analyses such as nonparametric Logit multiple regression, Spearman correlations, and Márkov chain analysis. The results reflect acceptable data reliability: Cronbach's alpha = 0.820 and McDonald's omega = 0.557. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test (p-value = 0.000) indicates that the data do not follow a normal distribution, while the Friedman test (p-value = 0.000) reveals significant differences between the groups analyzed. The results also show weak relationships between the independent variables of sales management and market analysis and the dependent variable of financial health, with the predictive multiple regression model having limited explanatory power (adjusted R2 1%). Regarding the coefficients of the items analyzed in the multiple regression equation, the pricing method (- 0.820) is the predictor with the greatest negative impact on finances, with a p-value of 0.034, which infers that it has a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable. The p-value greater than 0.05 for the remaining variables in the multiple regression does not show strong statistical significance, indicating that its influence on finances could be due to chance. Spearman's rho correlation test indicates weak relationships between sales management and financial variables, with the exception of business relationships (r = 0.159). Finally, the Márkov chain analysis shows that the financial stability of Huacho's MSEs decreased from 86.2% in the initial period to 33.1% in period 12, indicating that, despite a solid start, service MSEs are vulnerable to factors affecting their stability, which could reflect structural problems. The simulation of hypothetical scenarios shows that, under a pessimistic scenario, most MSEs face significant financial challenges, which could exacerbate threats of obsolescence and insolvency. Under an optimistic scenario, it is postulated that economic and market dynamics improve, fostering the consolidation and expansion of service MSEs, provided they maintain effective management practices and recalibrate their response strategies to the changing enabling environment conditions associated with operational activities within the Chancay Megaport.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; Universidad Nacional José Faustino Sánchez Carrión