LATIN AMERICAN MARKET ASSET VOLATILITY ANALYSIS: A COMPARISON OF GARCH MODEL, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION

Chung V.; Espinoza J. · Applied Computer Science (2023) · DOI: 10.35784/acs-2023-21

Resumen

The objective of this research was to compare the effectiveness of the GARCH method with machine learning techniques in predicting asset volatility in the main Latin American markets. The daily squared return was utilized as a volatility indicator, and the accuracy of the predictions was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. The findings consistently demonstrated that the linear SVR-GARCH models outperformed other approaches, exhibiting the lowest MAE and MSE values across various assets in the test sample. Specifically, the SVR-GARCH RBF model achieved the most accurate results for the IPC asset. It was observed that GARCH models tended to produce higher volatility forecasts during periods of heightened volatility due to their responsiveness to significant past changes. Consequently, this led to larger squared prediction errors for GARCH models compared to SVR models. This suggests that incorporating machine learning techniques can provide improved volatility forecasting capabilities compared to the traditional GARCH models.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Pedro Ruiz Gallo; Universidad Tecnológica del Perú