Land-Use microsimulation model for livelihood diversification after the 2010 Merapi volcano eruptions

Garcia-Fry M.; Murao O.; Bachri S.; Moya L.A. · Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (2022) · DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2022.103189

Resumen

The 2010 Merapi Volcano eruptions caused significant damage in the Sleman Regency of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Several households (HHs) were relocated to safely designated areas, but to sustain their livelihoods they have to travel back to their farmlands or change their identities as farmers. This study evaluates post-disaster mobility, aiming to clarify whether a land-use network with distributed livelihood options can complement rural labor in a recovery scenario. We collected sociodemographic and travel routine data in the affected areas. Then, the operational land use and transport microsimulation (OLUTM) model was performed to forecast a future scenario and gauge livelihood changes. Middle-aged farmers with upper median incomes and risk-taking behaviors were found to venture home businesses that contribute to rural labor. A 63% share of livelihoods diversified by farmers and 30% travel utility savings rendered a robust microsimulation system.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería