Land-system spillovers reveal trade-offs in conserving 30% of land

Ramírez-Mejía D.; Boere E.; Nguyen V.T.H.; Negret P.J.; Zaehringer J.G.; Davin E.L.; Valdés-Velásquez A.; Havlik P.; Zinngrebe Y.; Messerli P.; Verburg P.H. · One Earth (2026) · DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101812

Resumen

Protecting 30% of land by 2030 can curb biodiversity loss, but success depends on how conservation redirects land use beyond protected areas. Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework has spurred conservation ambition but also triggers land-system spillovers: shifts in land use elsewhere, including leakage, where agricultural production is displaced into unprotected land. How these spillovers vary across strategies and regions, and how trade redistributes them, remains unclear. Here, we couple a global economic model with a land-system model to quantify spillovers under two Target 3 scenarios. A Biodiversity-First approach avoids more conversion but generates higher leakage along frontiers; a Nature-and-People approach reduces leakage through semi-natural mosaics and intensification but leaves more tropical land unprotected. Most leakage occurs within the same region where conservation expands, although some shifts abroad through trade and concentrates in major export hubs. Durable implementation requires policy and monitoring matched to spillover patterns and governance.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia