Jaguars in their largest stronghold: spatial distribution of a generalist apex predator

Montanarin A.; Antunes A.C.; Baccaro F.; Nelson B.W.; Alvarenga G.C.; Fonseca C.R.; Carvalho N.; Barlow J.; Barnett A.A.; Lopes A.M.C.; Meiga A.Y.Y.; de Barros Barban A.; Camilo A.R.; Gonçalves A.B.C.; Manzatto A.G.; Castro A.B.; de Thoisy B.; Peres C.A.; Durigan C.; Rosa C.; Carnicer C.; da Silva Ferraz D.; da Rocha D.G.; Barcelos D.C.; Rosa D.C.P.; Ouboter D.A.; Gräbin D.M.; de Jesus Rodrigues D.; Venticinque E.M.; González E.M.; Nakano-Oliveira E.; de Carvalho Junior E.A.R.; Mendonça E.N.; Isasi-Catalá E.; Ramalho E.E.; dos Santos Monteiro E.C.; Paemelaere E.A.D.; de Melo F.R.; Brandão F.C.; Michalski F.; Santos F.; Anaguano-Yancha F.; de Pinho F.F.; Palmeira F.B.L.; de Avila Batista G.; Zapata-Rios G.; de Souza Ferreira Neto G.; Alves G.B.; Ayala G.; Prado H.A.; de Oliveira Barbosa Duarte H.; Costa H.C.M.; Cabrera J.A.; Teixeira J.V.; Miranda J.M.D.; Polisar J.; de Toledo J.J.; Pezzuti J.C.B.; Salvador J.; Silveira L.; Bonjorne L.; da Silva L.Z.; Perera-Romero L.; Benchimol M.; Lima M.G.M.; dos Santos Junior M.A.; Penhacek M.; Abrahams M.I.; de Paula M.J.; Alvarez-Loayza P.; Jansen P.A.; Ouboter P.; Prist P.R.; Pequeno P.A.C.L.; Leite R.N.; Sollmann R.; Ferreira R.A.F.; da Costa de Oliveira R.; Hilário R.R.; Sampaio R.; Wallace R.B.; Fadini R.; Morato R.G.; Ramos R.M.; Schaub R.; Cueva R.; Rolim S.; Espinosa S.; Laranjeiras T.O.; Piña T.E.N.; Boron V.; Kadosoe V.S.; Caetano-Andrade V.; Santiago W.T.V.; Endo W.; Magnusson W.E. · Biodiversity and Conservation (2026) · DOI: 10.1007/s10531-026-03461-2

Resumen

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the largest Neotropical apex predator. It exhibits marked behavioral plasticity, including flexible prey use, allowing it to respond to different landscapes. The Amazon forest harbors the largest jaguar population and is key to the species’ conservation, yet the drivers of its distribution across the biome remain poorly understood. Here, we compiled the most geographically extensive dataset of jaguar records for the Amazon to date, based on camera-trap data, totaling 2,694 records from 123 study areas spanning nine countries. This study represents the first large-scale assessment to explicitly incorporate prey composition and climate predictors while accounting for variation in sampling effort, allowing us to better distinguish ecological patterns from methodological differences among sites. After controlling for sampling effort, jaguar relative abundance was higher in areas dominated by ungulates and lower in areas dominated by pacas (Cuniculus spp.), potentially reflecting differences in habitat conditions, given the species’ tolerance of disturbance. Relative abundance also decreased with increasing drought intensity, suggesting that drought may influence jaguar populations across the biome. By explicitly modeling differences in sampling effort, including the number of cameras deployed, camera-trap duration and sampled area, we reduced spurious spatial patterns arising from heterogeneous survey designs and strengthened biome-wide inference on jaguar ecology. Our results highlight the likely importance of prey composition and drought conditions in explaining variation in jaguar relative abundance across the Amazon, while also showing that the biome continues to support widespread jaguar populations and remains a major stronghold for the species. These findings provide a broader empirical basis for understanding jaguar distribution and informing conservation planning across the one of the world’s largest tropical forest systems. © The Author(s) 2026.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana