Interpretable Machine Learning to Predict the Adoption Intention of Biogas–Solar Microgrids Within a Circular Bioeconomy Framework: An Exploratory Study of Organizational and Environmental Determinants

Farfán Chilicaus G.C.; Vera Zelada P.; Zambrano Spicer M.E.; Haro Sarango A.; Saldarriaga Castillo M.D.R.; Ramos Farroñán E.V.; Cabrera Cabrera O.H.; Izquierdo Espinoza J.R. · Sustainability (Switzerland) (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/su18146969

Resumen

This exploratory pilot study analyzes the organizational and environmental determinants associated with stated intention to adopt biogas-solar microgrids within a circular bioeconomy framework. A quantitative, applied, cross-sectional design was used with 71 valid individual responses from participants linked to productive, agro-industrial, livestock, energy, and waste management organizations or projects, selected through nonprobabilistic convenience sampling. The analysis does not measure actual investment, implementation, or use; therefore, the results refer only to declared adoption intention and should not be generalized beyond the sample. The questionnaire measured perceived benefits, barriers, institutional conditions, financial feasibility, environmental value, organizational capabilities, and adoption intention. Content validity was supported by expert judgment, and psychometric reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and McDonald’s omega. Predictive modeling compared supervised classification, regression, and unsupervised segmentation techniques using train-test validation, cross-validation, and interpretability analyses. ExtraTrees achieved the best exploratory classification performance, with a test ROC-AUC of 0.889, while RandomForestRegressor showed the best regression performance; however, these values should be interpreted as sample-specific evidence rather than as a validated predictive tool. Organizational capabilities and environmental criteria emerged as the most influential predictors, and K-Means suggested two tentative readiness profiles with weak separation. The findings suggest that stated adoption intention is associated with a systemic configuration of organizational maturity, environmental legitimacy, financial feasibility, and institutional support, providing preliminary evidence for future larger sample validation and for decision-support discussions in sustainable energy transitions.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Trujillo; Universidad Tecnológica del Perú; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Chota; Universidad César Vallejo