Integrated Multidimensional Modeling of Water Health and Resilience in the Cunas River Under Anthropogenic Pressure in Peru

Custodio M.; Huanay Y.; Huarcaya J. · Water (Switzerland) (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/w18091057

Resumen

The objective of this study was to assess and model the condition and resilience of the Cunas River using integrated indices and multivariate statistics in order to determine the impact of anthropogenic pressure and enhance water security in the Peruvian Andes. Stations in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river were monitored during the rainy and dry seasons, applying quality indices (NSF-WQI, WA-WQI, CCME-WQI, and I-WQI), principal component analysis (PCA), hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), and Spearman’s rank correlation (ρ) to assess the intensity and direction of associations between physical–chemical parameters. The results reveal severe degradation in the lower section of the river, with critical hypoxia and extreme coliform levels during the dry season, drastically exceeding the levels in the upper reach. The I-WQI demonstrated superior performance (322.24; Unfit) by being more sensitive than the NSF-WQI (53.15–59.87). PCA confirmed that low flow explains the greatest variance in pollution (PC1 71.55%), while HCA identified maximum synergy (rescaling distance < 1) between biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and total phosphorus, indicating the collapse of self-purification capacity. The HCA identified a maximum synergy between BOD5 and total phosphorus during the low-flow season, while the PCA confirmed that low discharge intensifies pollutant concentrations. These findings support the need for resilience-based governance that prioritizes the protection of natural infrastructure.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional del Centro del Perú