Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Mo L.; Zohner C.M.; Reich P.B.; Liang J.; de Miguel S.; Nabuurs G.-J.; Renner S.S.; van den Hoogen J.; Araza A.; Herold M.; Mirzagholi L.; Ma H.; Averill C.; Phillips O.L.; Gamarra J.G.P.; Hordijk I.; Routh D.; Abegg M.; Adou Yao Y.C.; Alberti G.; Almeyda Zambrano A.M.; Alvarado B.V.; Alvarez-Dávila E.; Alvarez-Loayza P.; Alves L.F.; Amaral I.; Ammer C.; Antón-Fernández C.; Araujo-Murakami A.; Arroyo L.; Avitabile V.; Aymard G.A.; Baker T.R.; Bałazy R.; Banki O.; Barroso J.G.; Bastian M.L.; Bastin J.-F.; Birigazzi L.; Birnbaum P.; Bitariho R.; Boeckx P.; Bongers F.; Bouriaud O.; Brancalion P.H.S.; Brandl S.; Brearley F.Q.; Brienen R.; Broadbent E.N.; Bruelheide H.; Bussotti F.; Cazzolla Gatti R.; César R.G.; Cesljar G.; Chazdon R.L.; Chen H.Y.H.; Chisholm C.; Cho H.; Cienciala E.; Clark C.; Clark D.; Colletta G.D.; Coomes D.A.; Cornejo Valverde F.; Corral-Rivas J.J.; Crim P.M.; Cumming J.R.; Dayanandan S.; de Gasper A.L.; Decuyper M.; Derroire G.; DeVries B.; Djordjevic I.; Dolezal J.; Dourdain A.; Engone Obiang N.L.; Enquist B.J.; Eyre T.J.; Fandohan A.B.; Fayle T.M.; Feldpausch T.R.; Ferreira L.V.; Finér L.; Fischer M.; Fletcher C.; Frizzera L.; Gianelle D.; Glick H.B.; Harris D.J.; Hector A.; Hemp A.; Hengeveld G.; Hérault B.; Herbohn J.L.; Hillers A.; Honorio Coronado E.N.; Hui C.; Ibanez T.; Imai N.; Jagodziński A.M.; Jaroszewicz B.; Johannsen V.K.; Joly C.A.; Jucker T.; Jung I.; Karminov V.; Kartawinata K.; Kearsley E.; Kenfack D.; Kennard D.K.; Kepfer-Rojas S.; Keppel G.; Khan M.L.; Killeen T.J.; Kim H.S.; Kitayama K.; Köhl M.; Korjus H.; Kraxner F.; Kucher D.; Laarmann D.; Lang M.; Lu H.; Lukina N.V.; Maitner B.S.; Malhi Y.; Marcon E.; Marimon B.S.; Marimon-Junior B.H.; Marshall A.R.; Martin E.H.; Meave J.A.; Melo-Cruz O.; Mendoza C.; Mendoza-Polo I.; Miscicki S.; Merow C.; Monteagudo Mendoza A.; Moreno V.S.; Mukul S.A.; Mundhenk P.; Nava-Miranda M.G.; Neill D.; Neldner V.J.; Nevenic R.V.; Ngugi M.R.; Niklaus P.A.; Oleksyn J.; Ontikov P.; Ortiz-Malavasi E.; Pan Y.; Paquette A.; Parada-Gutierrez A.; Parfenova E.I.; Park M.; Parren M.; Parthasarathy N.; Peri P.L.; Pfautsch S.; Picard N.; Piedade M.T.F.; Piotto D.; Pitman N.C.A.; Poulsen A.D.; Poulsen J.R.; Pretzsch H.; Ramirez Arevalo F.; Restrepo-Correa Z.; Rodeghiero M.; Rolim S.G.; Roopsind A.; Rovero F.; Rutishauser E.; Saikia P.; Salas-Eljatib C.; Saner P.; Schall P.; Schelhaas M.-J.; Schepaschenko D.; Scherer-Lorenzen M.; Schmid B.; Schöngart J.; Searle E.B.; Seben V.; Serra-Diaz J.M.; Sheil D.; Shvidenko A.Z.; Silva-Espejo J.E.; Silveira M.; Singh J.; Sist P.; Slik F.; Sonké B.; Souza A.F.; Stereńczak K.J.; Svenning J.-C.; Svoboda M.; Swanepoel B.; Targhetta N.; Tchebakova N.; ter Steege H.; Thomas R.; Tikhonova E.; Umunay P.M.; Usoltsev V.A.; Valencia R.; Valladares F.; van der Plas F.; Van Do T.; van Nuland M.E.; Vasquez R.M.; Verbeeck H.; Viana H.; Vibrans A.C.; Vieira S.; von Gadow K.; Wang H.-F.; Watson J.V.; Werner G.D.A.; Wiser S.K.; Wittmann F.; Woell H.; Wortel V.; Zagt R.; Zawiła-Niedźwiecki T.; Zhang C.; Zhao X.; Zhou M.; Zhu Z.-X.; Zo-Bi I.C.; Gann G.D.; Crowther T.W. · Nature (2023) · DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

Resumen

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana; Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco