Impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological responses in a Peruvian Andean watershed

Saavedra D.; Montesinos C.A.; Lavado-Casimiro W.S. · Journal of Water and Climate Change (2025) · DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2025.820

Resumen

More than 50 million people in the world depend on the Andean ecosystem services. This research is focused on assessing the impact of climate and land use change on hydrological responses in the headwaters of the Mariño River basin (southern Peruvian Andes) and the relevance of the Mechanism for Remuneration for Ecosystem Services (MERESE). Hydrometeorological data from the Rontoccocha Ecohydrological Monitoring System and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model were used. The results show that climate change has a more significant impact on water resources (up to 26% increase in mean annual runoff) than land use change (up to 1%). However, when combining both factors, the effects depend on the magnitude and dynamics with which each scenario influences hydrological processes. We find that MERESE has a high potential under changing conditions, since, through afforestation practices, it can increase groundwater (GWQ; 10–20%) and reduce surface runoff (SURQ; 10–60%). However, these effects could be improved considering the findings of this study.