Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Chen K.; de Schrijver E.; Sivaraj S.; Sera F.; Scovronick N.; Jiang L.; Roye D.; Lavigne E.; Kyselý J.; Urban A.; Schneider A.; Huber V.; Madureira J.; Mistry M.N.; Cvijanovic I.; Gasparrini A.; Vicedo-Cabrera A.M.; Armstrong B.; Schneider R.; Tobias A.; Astrom C.; Guo Y.; Honda Y.; Abrutzky R.; Tong S.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M.; Saldiva P.H.N.; Correa P.M.; Ortega N.V.; Kan H.; Osorio S.; Orru H.; Indermitte E.; Jaakkola J.J.K.; Ryti N.; Pascal M.; Katsouyanni K.; Analitis A.; Mayvaneh F.; Entezari A.; Goodman P.; Zeka A.; Michelozzi P.; de’Donato F.; Hashizume M.; Alahmad B.; Diaz M.H.; De la Cruz Valencia C.; Overcenco A.; Houthuijs D.; Ameling C.; Rao S.; Carrasco-Escobar G.; Seposo X.; da Silva S.P.; Holobaca I.H.; Acquaotta F.; Kim H.; Lee W.; Íñiguez C.; Forsberg B.; Ragettli M.S.; Guo Y.-L.L.; Pan S.-C.; Li S.; Colistro V.; Zanobetti A.; Schwartz J.; Dang T.N.; Van Dung D.; Carlsen H.K.; Cauchi J.P.; Achilleos S.; Raz R. · Nature Communications (2024) · DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

Resumen

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population. © The Author(s) 2024.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia