Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050

Yzarra-Tito W.J.; Tisnado S.; Acuña D.; Llacza A.; Jacome G.; Tapia B. · Scientia Agropecuaria (2026) · DOI: 10.17268/sci.agropecu.2026.038

Resumen

Climate change is a critical threat to food security in high Andean regions, where potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a strategic crop. In the Peruvian Altiplano, projected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation heighten the vulnerability of rainfed farming systems. In this context, simulation models are essential to anticipate impacts and design adaptation strategies. This study evaluated the effects of climate change on the yield of three potato varieties (Imilla Blanca, Imilla Negra, and Andina) in Taraco and Juliaca, using the AquaCrop model calibrated and validated with experimental field data collected between 2018 and 2021. Trials were conducted under a randomized complete block design, with three sowing dates. Calibration employed phenological, biomass, and yield data, assessed through statistical indicators (r, RMSE, d, and EF), showing robust performance. With the validated model, yield projections were simulated up to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Results indicated significant reductions in Taraco, especially under rainfed conditions and early sowing dates, while in Juliaca yield increases were projected under irrigation, albeit with high variability among models. The Andina variety exhibited greater resilience to water stress, whereas Imilla Negra was the most vulnerable under rainfed conditions. These findings emphasize that irrigation access, the selection of resilient varieties, and adjustments in sowing calendars are key strategies to mitigate impacts and strengthen food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Copyright (c) 2026 Scientia Agropecuaria. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Universidad Peruana Unión